Croatia vs Spain

I'm on Spain to score over 2.5 goals in Split, a single at 2.00.

Spain are in superb form, and three goals has become their normal output. They have won all three Nations League matches and scored 10, beating England 3-2 away, Croatia 4-1 and the Czech Republic 3-1. They are averaging 16.3 shots per match in the competition, with 7.3 on target. A side creating that much does not need a perfect night to reach three.

Croatia's defence makes it more likely. They have conceded 12 in their three Nations League games, and their only home match so far ended in a 0-7 defeat to England three days ago. Spain also scored four against them only last month, so this is a defence they have already opened up.

The danger is Spain going 2-0 up and easing off, or rotating heavily. I would check the line-up before kick-off. If it is close to their usual starting eleven, I think 2.00 is a fair price for a team that has made three goals look routine.