Al Nassr vs Al Kholood

Al Nassr welcome Al Kholood on the back of home form that is hard to ignore. Five straight wins on their own ground, averaging 2.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded, point to a side that both controls matches and keeps things tight at the back. With 17.4 shots per home game, there is little doubt about who usually holds the initiative, and I expect the hosts to see most of the ball and create the better chances again here.

Al Kholood have won only one of their last five away matches and concede 1.6 goals on average on the road. Across their last ten games they stand at four wins, two draws and four defeats, an uneven picture that fits well with a handicap in Al Nassr's favour.

The counterargument is a real one, though. The visitors do get shots away, averaging 14.4 per away game, and a consolation goal could quickly turn −1 into a tight affair. On top of that, a win by exactly one goal only returns the stake, and two of Al Nassr's last three home wins finished 1–0 and 2–1. Dominance has not always translated into big margins.

Even so, I'm going with Al Nassr −1 at 1.42, for one unit. The home form and the visitors' defensive frailties away from home carry the most weight, and at worst a narrow win gives the money back.